A river in Egypt

In the springtime, there are always a few bugs that manage to crawl their way into our home. Today I found an ant in the bedroom. Did I gently pick it up and take it outside? No. I crushed it. Or I tried. I stepped on it and heard it crunch underfoot. When I looked, it was still alive and trying to crawl away. I stepped on it again and again and it was still alive and squirmy. Tough little guy. I finally had to pick it up and flush it away.

I remember clearly during my first IVF cycle coming across an article about Br00ke Shields. It said she had tried IVF seven times before becoming pregnant. Madness, I thought. What kind of crazy person persists when the odds are clearly against them? If it doesn’t work the first or second time then just accept that it’s not gonna happen. Okay maybe, I conceded, three tries would be needed. We discussed this, my husband and I. Three tries is what we were prepared to do.

So anywho….

I started a cycle just a few days ago. I am not thinking about the details. I have no interest in my estradiol level, or follicle sizes, or lining thickness. I don’t want to know. Today was my 300th injection since all this began. I’ve been keeping track. That doesn’t count all the pokes I’ve endured for various blood tests. I’ve made a reservation at a NY hotel (freakin’ $300 a night. And no it’s not a fancy hotel. And yes, that’s like 8 gazillion Canadian dollars). I haven’t booked a flight. I’m not really convinced that things will progress well enough to actually require a trip to the clinic.

I’m not being pessimistic, really I’m not.
This is a realistic assessment of the situation based on lots and lots of past experience.
A Bayesian analysis of sorts.
The potential success of this IVF cycle (low) is not independent of the (lack of) success seen in past cycles. The cumulative evidence shows that i) I suck at making eggs ii) I suck at making embryos iii) any embryos that are transferred are promptly killed by my uterus.

But there is a chance. It is a tiny chance and we are taking it.
It is madness, but it’s a step I must take before coming to next one. Each time I do this I emerge a little crushed, a little broken. But I'm still here.

I won’t be providing updates on my progress, but here's a little preview what may or may not happen.
Scenario 1: Follicles will grow and estrogen will rise BUT subsequent bloodwork & ultrasounds will show follices have shrunk/disappeared and estrogen has fallen/reached a plateau. We will cancel our trip.
Scenario 2: There will actually be 3-4 follicles and we will book flights to NY. The clinic's bloodwork & ultrasound will show there is no point in proceeding. They will send us home.
Scenario 3: There will be 3-4 follicles which continue to grow. We will make it to retrieval and 1-2 eggs will be retrieved. They will not fertilize or if they do they will not divide. The clinic will send us home.
Scenario 4: Same as #3, but the eggs will fertilize. We will have 1-2 embryos. We will come home. I will rest. I will refrain from lifting heavy things. Two weeks and 14 PIO injections later I will find a single blue line.

Looking at the calendar, if all goes according to schedule the Beta will take place on my birthday or Mother's day. So that'll be swell.